Decision Making Archives | Page 2 of 2

Poker

Poker Quiz #1: Expected Value

July 19, 2017 by Rob

The idea of expected value is one that comes up often in poker and trading discussions. Expected value is the sum of the probability of each possible event times that event’s payoff. For example, if you were to flip a fair coin where you got paid $2 for heads and lost...

Gaming

The Detective and the Starcraft 2 Player: How Experts Observe and Think

March 20, 2017 by Jack & Rob

How does the experienced detective, strategy game player, or trader think about and observe situations differently from a beginner? One important difference is how experts use their experience to gain an edge when making decisions based on imperfect information. In the book, “Sources of Power,” the author, Dr. Gary Klein,...

Sports

Taking Biases out of Fantasy Trades

November 1, 2016 by Sri

It’s a classic Fantasy Football situation. Team A has an extra running back, but only one startable wide receiver. Team B has an extra receiver, but only one startable running back. It’s a fantasy match made in heaven, but somehow they’re not able to agree on a trade. How is...

Gaming

Why Crossword Construction is Still Driven by Humans

October 3, 2016 by Sam

This is an original crossword I wrote which hasn’t appeared anywhere else. It gets spoiled within the post, so try solving before reading on! So why do you need humans at all? In our technology-driven world where computers are doing more and more of the tedious tasks once relegated to...

Gaming

Why Margaery Tyrell Would Make a Better Poker Player than The High Sparrow

June 30, 2016 by Rob

WARNING: SPOILERS ARE COMING In Game of Thrones Season 6 Episode 10, the Sparrows are holding a trial for Cersei Lannister, which they expect her to attend. It is clear that the Sparrows have more military strength than Cersei. They have the Faith Militant, as well as the King’s army....

Sports

Trading for a Chance at the Super Bowl

May 19, 2016 by Justin

In response to “The Only Way to Beat the NFL Draft: Trade with Someone Who Thinks They Can!”, there are some qualitative arguments to support the Eagles giving up many picks to trade up for the #2 draft pick this year. This is not an endorsement for their trades. However,...

Sports

The Only Way to Beat the NFL Draft: Trade with Someone Who Thinks They Can!

May 5, 2016 by Al

There have been two blockbuster trades in the NFL as we approach the 2016 Draft on April 28-30. The LA Rams traded for the #1 overall pick, and separately, the Philadelphia Eagles traded for the #2 overall pick. However, both teams trading up had to give up a considerable amount...

Poker

Pay Attention: Why Details Matter in No-Limit Holdem

January 5, 2016 by Scott

Here is the situation: At a nine handed NL Holdem Table, you are holding (A♦ T♦) in the Big Blind (BB) and you choose to call a pre-flop raise from a player who opened under the gun (UTG). The flop comes (K♦ 7 ♥ 4♦), giving you the nut flush...

Sports

The ‘Critical’ Decision of the 2015 World Series of Baseball – in Hindsight

November 12, 2015 by Al

The New York Mets recently lost Game 5 of the 2015 World Series to the Kansas City Royals. The Mets were actually leading 2-0 heading into the 9th inning. Their star pitcher, Matt Harvey, had pitched brilliantly for the previous 8 innings. At this point, the Mets’ manager, Terry Collins,...